Ryan Dempster

Well, we're only six games into the new season, and my compulsive desire to talk baseball with everyone all the time is already rearing its ugly head. So to this abandoned corner of the 'Net do I return, seeking a release valve. I have loads of scattered thoughts that I'll tack on at the end, but the main thing I'd like to talk about is Ryan Dempster.

Demp got knocked around pretty bad on Opening Day (6 earned runs) and, to a lesser extent, today (4). But he also struck out seven and six respectively, and especially today, really seemed to be hammering the strike zone. He threw 114 pitches on opening day, 73 of which were strikes (64%); today he threw 94 pitches, 68 for strikes (72%). I was wondering idly on my way home whether perhaps his BAbip was unusually high, resulting in a lot of baserunners. I checked Baseball Reference when I got home, and was surprised by what I saw. Dempster's BAbip is actually low - only .250, where the average is typically around .300. The rest of his batting against stats are pretty much in line with what we can expect - all except for slugging, which is up at .600, way higher than normal. So it turns out that when they've been hitting Demp, they've been hitting him for power. Now, this is not something random over which the pitcher has no control (like BAbip); obviously, if Dempster serves up a fastball over the heart of the plate, that pitch has far more potential to earn the runner a high number of bases than, say, a changeup low in the zone. Neither is it a defense-independent stat, as Byrd's whiff on Chris Young's triple today demonstrated. So basically what I'm saying is that I'm not sure what to make of this, except that I think it will probably come down significantly - that, or Demp is just out there throwing BP.

Maybe he should hit the strike zone a little less.

(Now that I've said that, he'll walk seven in his next start.)

Notes:

• Starlin Castro: OMG. So much fun to watch. This kid is gonna be great, and he's off to a phenomenal start. But And Counting said it over at Obstructed View: he's gonna regress to the mean. Please let's don't boo him into oblivion when he does.
• Soriano, Byrd, Fukudome: I know "clutch" isn't really a thing. But these guys have been way clutch-er, and really hitting much better, than I expected at the start of the season. None of them have been the automatic out that my anxious, depressed, shrivelled, anemic little Cubs fan heart has anticipated. Fukudome won't stay that way; you could set a watch by his dismal yearly decline in May. Byrd, on the other hand, is practically guaranteed to continue improving after his slow start.
• Cashner, Wells: Ouch. Ouch, ouch, ouch. Been feeling sick about this one all day. Here's hoping they don't stay on the DL any longer than absolutely necessary, especially after that shockingly good performance from Cash. I'm expecting to see Casey Coleman, and honestly, I wouldn't mind it if James Russell got a shot at starting. I really liked the kid last year, and he might do better if he gets a chance to settle in and pitch for more innings. Then again, it might be terrible, but when has that ever stopped the Cubs?
• John Grabow: Pleasantly surprised. Could some of his suck really have been knee-related? I suppose we'll have to wait and see.
• Darwin Barney: My new favorite light-hitting middle infielder. Though this time, I seem to have picked one that actually has great defense, and he's even hitting pretty well at the moment. We'll see what happens.
• Autographs: My first trip to the ballpark was on Monday, which was a great game. I froze my ass off in the windy upper deck, but it was well worth it. After the game, I waited my usual stint at the players' parking lot, not expecting much - but wouldn't you know it, well-known awesome guy Sean Marshall decided to come sign. Followed by Keith Moreland. Followed by Cash and Colvin, who apparently carpool. Followed by Marlon Byrd, notoriously infrequent signer. Followed by Blake DeWitt. Add that to the Castro and Dempster autographs I already had from Saturday and Sunday respectively, and you've got a whole big pile of HOLY SHIT AWESOME running through my head.
• The Dempster signing: Demp signed autographs at a candy shop in Lakeview after the game on Sunday to benefit his foundation. Turns out, the rumors are true: he's just about the nicest guy that ever existed. In front of me in line were a little girl in a Dempster jersey and her mother. Mom told me that they'd met Demp before, during the winter, while sledding in a park; he'd taken a picture with her daughter, and later autographed said picture. When they approached him on Sunday, he instantly remembered them, and was happy to take more pictures and chat for a bit. When it was my turn, he sounded deeply flattered that I would have come out to see him. My brain froze, naturally, and all I could get out was "It's a real pleasure to meet you" but I think he knew I meant "I LOVE YOU SO MUCH AND AM TRYING NOT TO BE CREEPY /drool". I shook his hand, you guys. Also, Demp totally got in the driver's seat of a Peep car. I'm not even making that up.

Mike FonteNotes: Little guy's got a ring now! Good for him, although I wish it could have come with the Cubs. LBR also smacked a 2-run homer against the Pads in Spring Training. So far in the regular season, he's had 3 plate appearances and is still hitless.

Off day tomorrow. If the jitters get too bad, expect to see a rambly post, probably detailing why I love Darwin Barney so much.

Z gets the start vs Randy Wolf at Miller Park on Friday. Sound familiar? It should.